Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
